← Dashboard
MODULE 3 · ABOUT 3 HOURS

Setting the goals

What to predict, how to score it, and the baselines you must beat.

This module is an outline. The full lecture, widget, quiz and lab are on the way.

Lecture

What you’ll learn

  • Price, return or direction: choosing what to predict
  • Choosing a horizon: next day, next week
  • Error metrics: MAE and RMSE
  • Directional accuracy, and why 50% isn’t the real bar
  • Baselines: “tomorrow = today”, moving average, always guess “up”
  • Why markets are hard to predict

Lecture outline

  1. A goal you can test
  2. Scoring a forecast
  3. The baselines every model must beat
  4. What “good” really looks like for stock prediction

Discover: Beat the Coin

Guess up or down on 20 hidden real trading days, then see how a coin flip did.

Interactive widget coming soon.

Quiz

8 to 10 questions. 80% to pass, unlimited retakes.

Quiz coming soon.

Lab: Your goal card

Write a one-page goal card and compute the baseline scores your model must beat.

Runs in your browser

Notebook coming soon.